What Every Pastor Should Ask When Attendance Surges

One of the most valuable ways pastors can use attendance data is to spot spikes in the trend—and then ask one simple question:

👉 What caused this spike?

But before we get there, let’s define what a “spike” actually is and how to recognize when it matters.

If your numbers are fairly consistent week to week, a spike is typically anything 15–20% above your average. For example, if your 11:00am service usually averages 450 people, and one Sunday you hit 518 (a 15% increase), it’s time to start digging.

📉 Spikes or dips of just 5–10% are usually just normal noise—vacations, weather, random fluctuation. But a 15%+ spike? That’s your cue to investigate.

You already know why Easter spikes. That’s not the mystery. The real work is figuring out why this random Sunday just blew past expectations.

Start asking questions:

Did we promote a new sermon series?
Was there a post with unusually high engagement?
Did our digital marketing team try something different?
Was this the first Sunday after soccer season ended?
Did a new season of The Chosen drop?
Did a celebrity post something spiritual that went viral?

These external and internal factors both matter. Once you’ve narrowed it down to 2–3 possible causes, test your theory.

✅ If the media team tried something new—repeat it.
✅ If families came back after a sports season ended—target that window more aggressively.
✅ If something big happened culturally—monitor and align future messaging.

And most importantly: track everything. Your future strategy depends on learning from today’s spike.

Attendance data isn’t just a number—it’s a signal. Learn to listen.

At Kingdom Metrics, we help churches get accurate, automated attendance counts—so when you see a spike, you’ll know it’s real.
No more guessing. No more volunteer headcounts. Just clean, trustworthy data you can actually act on.

📩 Want to see how it works? Let’s talk: Jeremiah@kingdommetrics.com

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