Don’t Miss the Moment — Kingdom Metrics

You know when it happens.

The room feels full. Kids’ check-in is buzzing. Coffee runs out faster than usual. You just had a big Sunday—maybe Easter, baptisms, a new series kickoff, or some other high-energy event.

Those spikes are exciting. But here’s the real question:

How many of those people came back?

If your only metric is “total attendance,” you might miss the most important thing—retention.

Why Retention Matters

At Kingdom Metrics, we’ve found that the four weeks following a spike are your highest-leverage opportunity to turn a guest into a regular.

If someone attends twice during that 4-week stretch, their odds of becoming a consistent part of your church go way up. If they come three times? Even better.

That’s why we recommend tracking what we call the 4-week retention rate.

How to Measure Retention

Here’s a simple formula to use:

Retention Rate =
(Unique Attenders in Week 1 who return at least once in Weeks 2–5) ÷ (Total Unique Attenders in Week 1) × 100

Put another way:
Of everyone who came on your big Sunday, how many came back at least once in the following month?

What This Tells You

When you track this metric consistently, it helps answer questions like:

• Are our follow-up systems working?

• Are new people connecting with something real?

• Is the spike just noise, or is it turning into movement?

What to Do with This Data

Don’t let a spike come and go without learning from it. Here's what you can do:

• Flag your spike Sundays. Keep a running list.

• Track returners for four weeks. Don’t wait until week five to look back.

• Activate your teams. Follow-up emails, invites to small groups, personal texts—this window matters.

• Review and adjust. What worked? What didn’t?

Bottom line:
Attendance spikes give you opportunity. Retention tells you if you're stewarding it.

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